Industry Insight
The Transmission Squeeze
Transmission is now the critical constraint shaping America’s energy future. More than 2,600 GW of projects sit in interconnection queues, double existing capacity, while AI data centers alone are projected to require over 100 GW by 2035. Electrification of transportation and manufacturing adds further strain.
The challenge is clear: the pace of transmission development is far slower than the pace of demand. Average project timelines stretch 6-9 years, while permitting and supply chain hurdles often push major lines beyond a decade. Without acceleration, the grid itself becomes the limiting factor for renewable deployment, AI growth, and economic competitiveness.
Why Transmission Programs Stall
Even when capital is available, transmission projects falter in predictable ways:
- Interconnection and regulatory delays. Regional backlogs create multi-year holdups before projects can break ground. Permitting and siting disputes add years, especially for interstate lines.
- Supply chain and workforce constraints. Transformer lead times that once measured weeks now run 2–3 years. Skilled labor for high-voltage construction is in short supply, driving turnover and cost escalation.
- Weak program management. Utilities often staff for average workload, not peak demand. Controls lag as portfolios grow, leaving executives with outdated variance reports. Stakeholder engagement starts late, creating avoidable opposition.
These external and internal pressures compound into schedule slips, budget overruns, and declining stakeholder confidence.
What Works
Programs that succeed follow a different playbook:
- Integrated program management. One accountable structure coordinates permitting, procurement, and construction across multiple contractors.
- Strategic procurement. Frame contracts and early bulk orders lock in critical equipment before shortages hit.
- Proactive workforce planning. Modeling peak demand for specialized transmission skills prevents mid-program bottlenecks.
- Controls and transparency. Portfolio-level dashboards with earned value metrics give executives and regulators real-time visibility, enabling early intervention.
- Stakeholder trust. Early, sustained engagement with landowners, regulators, and communities reduces friction and accelerates approvals.
The difference is measurable. Utilities with dedicated transmission PMOs consistently outperform those relying on ad-hoc structures, sustaining schedule adherence in the 75–85% range versus 55–65%. Early engagement has cut years off multi-state projects by reducing late-stage opposition, while strategic procurement has allowed programs to maintain momentum during industry-wide transformer shortages.
The CARIAN Approach
At CARIAN, we’ve supported transmission programs in reducing cost variance from the high teens to single digits and in avoiding multi-year equipment delays through early procurement coordination. Our integrated PM model gives utilities the execution capacity these programs demand, coordinating hundreds of work fronts while maintaining transparency for boards and regulators.
Looking Ahead
Transmission is the backbone of both the energy transition and the digital economy. The constraint is not vision or funding, it’s execution discipline.
The next decade will be defined not by who announces the biggest transmission plans, but by who actually energizes them, on time and on budget.
